A Game-theoretic Hypothesis on the Relations between Victim States and Terrorist Organizations Based on the Eminue-Ufomba Model

Abstract

This article extends the Eminue-Ufomba model of terrorist target selection in two dimensions. The original model restricts itself to the rationality of a terrorist organization in its target selection in relation to the victim state’s national power. This article goes beyond this by incorporating into the model the novel concepts of endurance capacity and power forgone. Using a game-theoretic approach, this article makes an assumptive analysis of the behavior of a victim state following a terrorist demand and the actual use of threat.